Most risk questionnaires ask if you’re “conservative” or “aggressive.” Those words mean different things to different people. So we’re going to do this differently.
Over the next few minutes we’ll show you exactly how five different portfolios have actually behaved — the good years, the brutal ones, the long grinds — and ask you what you would have done. By the end, we’ll have a real picture of the mix that fits you. About 6 minutes.
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$100,000 invested in 2000
A little about you
First, the basics.
Quick context so the questions on the next screens are framed around your actual situation. This stays between you and your advisor.
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The five portfolios
Here’s what real money has actually done.
These are five mixes Balance Wealth manages, from all-bonds to all-stocks. Each line is what $100,000 would have grown to from January 2000 through today — not a forecast, not a backtest of some clever idea. Just what real index returns produced.
$100,000 grown 2000 – 2025
A note before we go further
Every line on that chart felt very different to live through. The all-stock portfolio ended with the most money — and would have made you sweat through three full-blown crashes to get there. The all-bonds line is steady — and lost real ground to inflation. The truth is that the “right” portfolio isn’t the one with the highest end value. It’s the one you’ll actually stay in.
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Scenario 1 of 3 · The 2008 financial crisis
Imagine our first year together is 2008.
You handed us $1,000,000 in January.
You’re in the 80/20 stocks-bonds portfolio — the one that returned the best of any growth-tilted mix over the long run. Then Lehman fails. Bear Stearns fails. The headlines say the financial system itself might be next. By December your statement reads $720,000. You’ve lost $280,000 on paper. We’re telling you the plan still works. The TV is telling you to run.
−28%
Year 1 return
$720k
December balance
15 mo.
Until full recovery
For context: the 80/20 portfolio made it all back by spring 2010 and was up 64% from the bottom by the end of 2013.
What do you actually do?
Be honest with yourself. There’s no “right” answer here.
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Scenario 2 of 3 · March 2020
The fastest crash in market history.
S&P 500, January – August 2020
In 22 trading days, the market dropped 34%. The economy was shutting down. Then — faster than anyone expected — it recovered, and by August it was back to even. If you’d stayed put, you’d have ended 2020 up double digits.
If that month had hit you, what would have actually been true?
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Scenario 3 of 3 · The 2022 grind
Sometimes there’s no crash. Just a slow leak.
60 / 40 portfolio, monthly statement values 2022
2022 wasn’t scary. It was tedious. Stocks down. Bonds down. Both at the same time, for the first time in 45 years. The 60/40 lost 16%. It took 18 months to make it back. No villain. No clear story. Just a long, dull bleed.
How does watching that month after month feel to you?
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The trade-off
Imagine you have $500,000 invested.
Each box below shows what your balance might be one year from now. The middle line is the most likely outcome. The bar shows the realistic range — the bad year on the left, the good year on the right. Pick the range you’d actually be willing to live with, knowing the downside is real.
Ranges show roughly the 5th to 95th percentile of historical 1-year outcomes for portfolios in each band.
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Required disclosures · A few quick questions
The standard stuff.
A handful of generic questions we’re required to ask. Quick — about a minute — and they help us round out the picture.
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Your risk profile
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Recommended mix
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Long-run expected return
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Worst single year (since 2000)
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Recovery time after that year
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Your recommended portfolio: $100,000 since 2000
What we’d talk about together
This isn’t the final word — it’s the starting point of a conversation. There are reasons we might dial up or down: tax situation, near-term liquidity needs, concentrated positions, what you’ve already told us about your family. Bring this with you to our next meeting and we’ll work it out together.
Start over
Past performance figures are based on widely available index history (S&P 500 Total Return for stocks, Bloomberg US Aggregate for bonds) and are illustrative only. Real client portfolios may differ. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This tool collects information for the purpose of having a conversation about suitability and is not, by itself, an investment recommendation. Your final allocation will be discussed and agreed with your Balance Wealth advisor in writing.
